The Market Is Moving — Fast
Q4 has been one of the most active periods we’ve seen this year. According to BizBuySell, 2,599 transactions closed in Q3, an 8% increase year-over-year and 11% higher than Q2. Sellers aren’t waiting for economic uncertainty to clear—they’re moving now.
Axial reported 3,320 new deals hitting the market, led by Healthcare, Business Services, Industrials, and Tech. That’s the second-highest deal volume on record.
What’s Happening on the Ground
- Buyer demand is strong: More qualified buyers than ever are actively searching.
- Well-priced businesses with clean financials move fast—often within days, sometimes hours. Multiple LOIs frequently arrive within weeks.
Valuations: Holding Strong
Multiples remain resilient:
- Main Street ($1M–$2M SDE): 3.3x–4.0x
- Lower Middle Market ($2M–$50M EBITDA): 5.3x–6.5x — the highest in a decade
Buyers are informed and metrics-driven. Sellers are realistic. Businesses with clean books and recurring revenue stand out.
Deals Are Closing Faster
Median time on market dropped to 149 days, the lowest since 2017.
Why?
- More serious buyers than quality listings
- Sellers pricing realistically
Industry Trends: Hot & Cold
Strong sectors:
- Healthcare (+27% on Axial)
- Residential & Commercial Services
- Retail and Restaurants showing surprising strength
Challenged sectors:
- Manufacturing: Deals down 11%, median prices down 37%
- Consumer Goods & Hospitality: More listings, less buyer interest
Buyer Sentiment: Confident & Motivated
- 77% of buyers believe they can find a good deal now
- Corporate layoffs and AI-driven job shifts are fueling a wave of “corporate refugees” entering small business ownership
- Buyers are prepared, informed, and focused on multiples
Seller Sentiment: Realistic & Ready
- Baby Boomers still dominate (59% of sellers), mostly selling for retirement
- Sellers are prepared, motivated, and open to fair offers
- Pricing expectations are aligned with market realities
Looking Ahead to 2026
- Potential Fed rate cuts could boost SBA-backed buying power
- Corporate layoffs will continue driving demand
- Expect higher multiples and strong activity in recession-resistant sectors like home services
My Take
Early 2026 will be active:
- More buyers than sellers
- Lower rates will push valuations higher
- If your business is profitable with clean books, buyers will find you
Even if you plan to sell next year, start preparing now.
Michael Shea represents the Tampa Florida Transworld office. In business since 2005, he has established a reputation as a trusted business broker across Florida’s key markets- from Tampa to Orlando, Melbourne, and more. Over the past two decades, Michael and his team have closed over $1 Billion in sold business volume and presided over more than 450 transactions. His credentials include the IBBA Certified Business Intermediary®, and most recently, the prestigious Certified Exit Planning Advisor® (CEPA) credential.